It’s an utterly futile act, prognosticating a season’s snowfall in September, but who can help not getting a little excited when winter forecast emails start popping up in your inbox? So, if you are a sucker for Pacific water temps and how they theoretically will affect the snowfall here in Aspen
NOAA:
Precipitation is expected to have an Equal Chance of being below average or above average.
El Niño or La Niña?
For the upcoming 2021-2022 winter season, there's a ~50% chance that water temperatures will reach below-average (blue bar = La Niña), a less than 10% chance that water temperatures will be above-average (red bar = El Niño), and a ~40% chance that water temperatures will be near-average (grey bar = Neutral).
These model forecasts provide us with a signal for a La Niña event during the 2021-2022 winter season. (EL Nino is the one we want unfortunately.)
The official Climate Prediction Center outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 70% chance for La Niña to continue through the 2021-2022 winter season.
Lastly, when all else fails, we always have this:
Will it be a snowy winter in Aspen this year?
